Judge, Soto and Stanton vs. Ohtani, Betts and Freeman! Here’s your first look at what will decide a star-studded Fall Classic showdown.
Judge, Soto and Stanton vs. Ohtani, Betts and Freeman! Here’s your first look at what will decide a star-studded Fall Classic showdown. Judge, Soto and Stanton vs. Ohtani, Betts and Freeman! Here’s your first look at what will decide a star-studded Fall Classic showdown.
The 2024 World Series matchup is set, and it will be a star-studded showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees.
After the Yankees put away the Cleveland Guardians on Juan Soto‘s extra-innings home run in Game 5 of the ALCS on Saturday night, the Dodgers finished off the New York Mets with a Game 6 win in the NLCS on Sunday.
What carried New York and Los Angeles this far — and will it continue to work in the Fall Classic? What can we expect from Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani? And which other stars must shine for each team to win? Our MLB experts are here with your first look at a showdown between two of MLB’s premier franchises.
New York Yankees
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Yankees to the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: The stress they apply on opposing pitchers. The Yankees, in particular the top four hitters in their lineup, have made pitchers work. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt succinctly described the challenge before Game 5 of the ALCS: They’re on the fastball, and they don’t chase. The Yankees are averaging four pitches per plate appearance in the playoffs. They are drawing walks at a high clip. The constant traffic creates constant pressure. And it starts early: Leadoff hitter Gleyber Torres has reached base in the first inning in eight of the Yankees’ nine playoff games. Juan Soto, their 2-hole hitter, has done it in seven games. That increases pitch counts early, which leads to a quicker hook for opposing starting pitchers, which taxes bullpens over a series. It’s a grind, and it’s an effective blueprint.
Bradford Doolittle: Patience. Those walks galore have kept the pressure on opposing pitchers and set up the big moments for the Yankees’ offense, which have usually come in the form of clutch, multi-run homers. Runs have been at a premium on the AL side of the proceedings and instead of getting out of their approach in an effort to make something happen, from top to bottom New York has been able to maintain this key aspect of its regular-season attack.
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
Jeff Passan: Their ability to get on base. The Yankees have an AL-best .347 on-base percentage and are walking in a staggering 13.9% of plate appearances. Walks are up across the board in the postseason — the playoffs-wide walk rate is 9.9%, compared to 8.2% in the regular season — but among their nine regulars, seven Yankees are walking at least 11.1% of the time. What’s especially impressive is their on-base percentage to lead off innings: .450. By now, it should be boilerplate: the easiest way to score runs is to put people on base. And the Yankees have scored enough to make it to the World Series.
Why will — or won’t — it continue against the Dodgers?
Castillo: The guess here is it will. Like the Guardians, the Dodgers have relied heavily on their bullpen in the postseason. Their three starters — Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler — have had uneven postseasons. They have combined to make eight playoff starts. Four of those starts have lasted fewer than five innings. Add in at least one bullpen game, if not two, over the course of the series, and the Yankees have the recipe to grind the Dodgers’ pitching staff down.
Doolittle: I think it will continue, but the problem is that the advantage the Yankees have in this department disappears because the Dodgers are just as good collectively when it comes to grinding down opposing pitchers. The key to the series might be the walks department, either because one team does a better job of preventing them or does a better job of capitalizing on them in the form of big home runs.
Passan: It will, because the Dodgers are susceptible to the walk — and L.A.’s pitchers don’t strike out oodles of hitters. Los Angeles’ advantage early in the series is that it will be able to give the Yankees plenty of different looks among its array of bullpen arms. If the Yankees weather those early games, the familiarity penalty could work in favor of New York’s offense later in the series. (This goes both ways, to be clear.) New York’s hitting depth has blossomed this October, and it’s the sort that’s smart enough not to get bullpenned to death.
It has been an up-and-down postseason for Aaron Judge. What should we expect to see from him in the World Series?
AP
Castillo: More success. Judge hasn’t been MVP Judge in the postseason. Going 5-for-31 with 13 strikeouts isn’t ideal. But he has been productive. He has walked seven times. He has hit two home runs. He hasn’t been a zero. Remember that tying two-run home run he hit off Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase in Game 3 of the ALCS? Not many people on Earth would’ve hit that pitch out. He reached base in four of five ALCS games. He’s due for a breakout.
Doolittle: A big series. He’s just too good for this (lack of hits) to continue. Getting to the Series in the first place should ease his mind, and those around him — Soto, Stanton, Torres — have been going so well that Judge needn’t feel any special burden. I think he’ll hit at least four home runs against the Dodgers.
2024 MLB playoffs
We have your one-stop shop for everything you need to keep up with all the action this October. Schedule, bracket, standings »
Passan: Up. It’s always eventually going to be up with Judge. Even as he “struggles” this postseason, he has still been a near-average producer, with a wRC+ of 94. No, it’s not to Judge’s standards, but acting as if he has disappeared is just counterfactual. Much of the production came in the ALCS, which suggests that Judge could be ready to go on a jag. If he does, he’s the sort of player who can carry a team to a championship.
Which other player is most crucial to the Yankees’ chances in this series?
Castillo: Gerrit Cole. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner — he has that title for about another month — is the best starting pitcher in this series. He is lined up to start Game 1 on nine days’ rest. If all goes well, he’d take the ball in Game 5 and be able to help out in Game 7. He could have the opportunity to make a huge impact on this series. His postseason has been a mixed bag thus far: One dominant outing and two solid showings. Something like his performance in Game 4 of the ALDS — seven one-run innings on the road in a series-clinching win over the Royals — in Game 1 against the Dodgers on Friday could significantly boost Yankees’ chances to win the championship.
Doolittle: Luke Weaver. This entire postseason has been defined by the successes and lack thereof of ninth-inning relievers. Weaver has been terrific but not perfect as the Guardians took him deep a couple of times. The Yankees’ bullpen looks a lot more formidable if Aaron Boone can assume an on-point Weaver to take over at the end of games.
Passan: Weaver. The newly minted closer finally showed a crack after an almost-impermeable postseason during Game 3 of the division series, allowing Jhonkensy Noel blast to tie the game with two outs in the ninth. Prior to that, Weaver had been the most unhittable pitcher in baseball for a month, and he has the arsenal to back it up with a four-seamer, changeup and cutter that are all above-average pitches. But Boone has leaned on him heavily. If Weaver can muster the ability to regularly finish games as he has done for a majority of the postseason, the Yankees will feel much better in the most high-leverage situations.
Los Angeles Dodgers
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Dodgers to the World Series?
Alden Gonzalez: Their offensive approach, which basically boils down to this: Ignore balls and be aggressive against pitches in your preferred area. It sounds a whole lot easier than it actually is, of course. And the Dodgers’ hitters were as good as any throughout the year at luring opposing pitchers into their desired nitro zones, a skillset they used expertly against Jose Quintana — the New York Mets left-hander who thrived all year at getting chase — during their 10-run onslaught in NLCS Game 4. The Dodgers’ pitching continues to be a concern, but their lineup — even with a hobbled Freddie Freeman — has the depth and talent to carry them through every October round. And when they’re stubborn in their zone, they can seem unbeatable.
Jesse Rogers: Let’s not overthink this: Shohei Ohtani impacts games in ways no other player can right now. Yes, the Dodgers have had some good pitching performances, but their bread-and-butter is their offense and it starts with Ohtahi. Take Game 4. The leadoff home run set the tone for the night, and that’s not just cliché talk. After putting the Dodgers up 1-0, the Mets pitched him so carefully that he walked the next three times and scored three more runs because of it. His damage (7-for-11, five walks) with men on base this postseason should not be glossed over. He’s the reason the Dodgers are here.
Best of 2024 MLB Playoffs
Doolittle: How Yankees broke through »Gonzalez: How Freeman fought to NLCS »Doolittle: Early NLCS lessons (ESPN+) »Castillo: Judge eyes October redemption »
David Schoenfield: More than anything, the roster depth from No. 1 to No. 26. It seems just about everybody has stepped up at some point. Or let’s put it this way: That depth has allowed the Dodgers to overcome the injuries in the rotation as well as injuries to Freddie Freeman (who has just one run scored and one RBI in the postseason) and Miguel Rojas (who wasn’t on the roster for the NLCS). The bullpen saved the season with that the shutout in Game 4 against the Padres, Mookie Betts finally broke out of his multiyear postseason slump, Tommy Edman drove in 11 runs in the NLCS and Kiké Hernandez has continued his Mr. October persona after getting a chance to start when Rojas went down in the NLDS against the Padres.
Why will — or won’t — it continue against the Yankees?
Gonzalez: Because if there’s one team better than the Dodgers at not chasing outside the strike zone and being aggressive within it, it’s, you guessed it, the Yankees. And New York’s lineup seems exponentially more challenging to navigate with Gleyber Torres consistently getting on base from the leadoff spot and Giancarlo Stanton continually crushing big homers behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Unlike in the NLCS, for which they weren’t able to reset their rotation, the Dodgers will probably require only one bullpen game in the World Series. But it goes without saying that they’re nonetheless going to need their three-man staff of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to be effective. That was a tough task against the Mets. It will be exceedingly difficult against the Yankees.
Rogers: The short porch at Yankees Stadium will benefit Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman and others, but Dodgers pitching is trending toward being on fumes. Can Yamamoto give them a few more innings? Did Jack Flaherty hit a wall in his last start? Which direction is Walker Buehler trending in this October? There are just too many questions heading into another potentially long series. Additionally, the Dodgers have had success leaning on their bullpen so far, but asking for another round of covering about five innings per night could be asking too much. The Yankees are set up better on the mound for what could be a high-scoring series.
Schoenfield: It’s going to have to continue. They still have just three starters, and Jack Flaherty’s second outing against the Mets (eight runs and no strikeouts in three innings) doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for the World Series. After that game, Dave Roberts mentioned in regards to Freeman, “I do think his swing is not right. I’m certain it’s the ankle.” In other words, it’s hard to know what to expect from Freeman in the World Series. In the end, while the bullpen seems hot, Roberts will have to manage those innings carefully. Still, the Dodgers probably can’t keep relying so much on guys like Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernandez. They’ll need more Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith — and, of course, big results from Ohtani and Mookie Betts.
Shohei Ohtani has had mixed results in his first postseason. What should we expect from him in the World Series?
Luke Hales/Getty Images
Gonzalez: One thing I don’t expect to see is a lot of strikes. Ohtani has drawn 11 walks in his first 11 postseason games and is seeing only 39.0% of pitches within the strike zone. Teams clearly prefer to make those batting behind Ohtani beat them. And given that the vast majority of the Yankees’ best arms are right-handed — all except Tim Hill, who’s technically below three other relievers in the pecking order — they’ll probably pitch Ohtani just as carefully as everybody else. If Mookie Betts stays hot, of course, that won’t be a problem. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has said that when Ohtani is right, he’s “stubborn in his zone” and drives pitches into the left- and right-center-field gaps. That approach has come and gone this month.
Rogers: Greatness. Yes, he has made a few outs when the bases were empty — so what? He’ll find the dimensions at Yankees stadium to his liking and already is beginning to reverse his trend of hitting only with runners on, as evidenced by his leadoff homer in Game 4 of the NLCS. And who knows, maybe we’ll see him on the mound. He’s nearly ready to face hitters — though the Dodgers might not want the first time to be in the World Series. Anything can happen in baseball, but Ohtani will show up in the box score one way or another. Bank on it.
MLB playoff free agency stock watch
Here’s which upcoming MLB free agents who can make (or cost) themselves the most money the rest of October.
Schoenfield: Ohtani has been fine. Through his 11 postseason games, he has three home runs, 10 RBIs, 11 walks and 12 runs – season-long paces of 44 home runs, 145 RBIs, 160 walks and 160 runs. I think our expectations were a little unrealistic given his absolutely ridiculous stretch to end the season, so his very good performance almost seems like a letdown. The only things he hasn’t done: steal any bases (he’s 0-for-1) and deliver a signature game to remember. I think we’ll get one of those games in the World Series.
Which other player is most crucial to the Dodgers’ chances in this series?
Gonzalez: Pick a starter. Any starter. I’ll go with Jack Flaherty. He’ll probably get Game 1 because he can come back on the traditional four days’ rest to pitch again in Game 5 (if Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts Game 1, the Dodgers would be forced to stage two bullpen days within the first five games because Yamamoto requires five days of rest). Flaherty pitched seven scoreless innings in Game 1 of the NLCS but got roughed up in a Game 5 start in which he threw with a diminished fastball. The Dodgers desperately need Flaherty to recapture the life of that pitch. It’s hard to see them winning a championship without him being effective.
Rogers: I’m going outside the box on this one: Yamamoto. He’s trending in the right direction, and the Dodgers desperately need some innings out of somebody on the starting staff, especially if Flaherty’s rough last outing is closer to who he’ll be going forward. He looked like he hit a wall, while Walker Buehler has been grinding through his starts for a while now. Meanwhile, Yamamoto threw 73 pitches in Game 4 of the NLCS, striking out eight Mets over 4⅓ innings. If he can add another 10 pitches to that this round, he’ll be as important as anyone on the mound for L.A.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Teoscar Hernandez. Given the state of the Dodgers’ pitching and the potential of the bullpen hitting the wall a little bit, they’re going to have to score runs. And with Freeman limited, it’s up to Hernandez to offer that big bat behind Ohtani and Betts. He didn’t get a hit the first five games of the NLCS. That can’t continue if the Dodgers are going to win.
www.espn.com – TOP
