What the numbers tell us about Canelo Alvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga​

Canelo Alvarez will headline a boxing card in Las Vegas for the 18th time when he puts his WBC, WBO and WBA super middleweight world titles on the line against Edgar Berlanga on Saturday night. The fight card at T-Mobile Arena also includes Erislandy Lara defending his WBA middleweight title against Danny Garcia and a super middleweight bout between Caleb Plant and Trevor McCumby for the vacant WBA interim title.

Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) has held titles in four divisions, including the lineal championship at middleweight and super middleweight. Alvarez became the undisputed super middleweight champion by defeating Plant by 11th-round TKO in November 2021. He made four successful defenses before the IBF stripped him of the belt in July when Alvarez decided to face Berlanga instead of the IBF’s mandatory challenger, William Scull.

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“I just want to show everyone that I’m still the best,” Alvarez said during Wednesday’s news conference in Las Vegas. “I still love this sport. When I stop loving it, you’ll know. I love my routine and I love going to the gym every day.”

Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs) has never fought for a world title. After starting his career 16-0, with all of his victories coming in the first round, Berlanga has scored just one stoppage in his past six victories.

Berlanga, a heavy underdog (+900 per ESPN BET), knows he has to do something special to beat Alvarez, one of the best fighters in the world.

“This is the opportunity of a lifetime,” Berlanga said. “It’s gonna be a firefight this weekend. … I’m gonna make everyone a believer. We have Puerto Rico vs. Mexico and we’re going at it on Saturday night.”

Let’s take a look at the title fight by the numbers, with data from ESPN Stats & Information and CompuBox.

-2000: Odds for Alvarez to win the fight, per ESPN BET.

1,582: Total seconds fought by Berlanga in his first 16 fights as a pro, which all ended in the first round, for an average of 98.9 seconds per fight. The combined record of all 16 opponents at the time of their fights was 175 wins, 67 loses and 15 draws.

4: Successful title defenses by Alvarez as undisputed super middleweight champion. He’s the only male boxer with four defenses of an undisputed title in the four-belt era (since 2007).

Canelo vs. Berlanga betting odds

FighterBetting oddsCanelo Alvarez-2000Edgar Berlanga+900All odds by ESPN BET

21: Victories by Alvarez in world title fights; at 21-2-1, he’s the fourth Mexican-born fighter with 20 or more wins in world title fights. With a win on Saturday, he would break a tie with Marco Antonio Barrera for the third most wins in world title fights by a Mexican fighter (Julio Cesar Chavez, 31; Ricardo “Finito” Lopez, 25).

11: Undisputed men’s champions in the modern four-belt era. In addition to Alvarez, they are: Bernard Hopkins, Jermain Taylor, Terence Crawford, Oleksandr Usyk, Teofimo Lopez, Josh Taylor, George Kambosos Jr., Devin Haney, Jermell Charlo and Naoya Inoue.

ESPN Stats & Information

14.7: Punches landed by Alvarez per round out of 41 thrown (35.9%, No. 5 in accuracy among champions and title contenders).

4.2: Jabs landed per round by Alvarez out of 18.3 (23%).

10.5: Power punches landed per round by Alvarez out of 22.7 (46.3%), No. 6 among champions and title contenders.

6.6: Power punches per round landed on Alvarez by his opponents (30.1%).

12.4: Punches landed by Berlanga per round out of 37.6 thrown (33%).

7.6: Power punches landed by Berlanga per round out of 17.8 (42.7%).

5.8: Power punches landed on Berlanga per round by opponents (29.9%).

Canelo vs. Berlanga CompuBox Punch Stats Comparison

PunchesCanelo (last 24 fights)Berlanga (last 6 fights)Div. avg.Total avg. thrown per round4137.651.1Total avg. landed per round14.712.414.8Percentage35.9%33%29%Body landed ratio30.5%21.3%N/AJabs avg. thrown per round18.319.822.3Jabs avg. landed per round4.24.84.3Percentage23%24.2%19.3%Power avg. thrown per round22.717.828.8Power avg. landed per round10.57.610.5Percentage46.3%42.7%36.5%

This will be Alvarez’s 11th fight around Mexican Independence Day weekend, with his only loss coming in 2013 against Floyd Mayweather.

ESPN Stats & Information

Even though Berlanga was born in Brooklyn, New York, his Puerto Rican descent means this fight joins other notable Mexico-Puerto Rico title bouts.

Notable Mexico vs. Puerto Rico world title fights

YearMexican fighterPuerto Rican fighterFight resultTitle on the line2015Canelo AlvarezMiguel CottoAlvarez wins UD12WBC middleweight1999Felix TrinidadOscar De La HoyaTrinidad wins MD12IBF/WBC welterweight1992Julio Cesar ChavezHector CamachoChavez wins UD12WBC junior welterweight1981Salvador SanchezWilfredo GomezSanchez wins TKO8WBC featherweight

In comparison to Alvarez’s championship experience, Berlanga will be fighting for a world title for the first time in his career. It will be a big step up in competition for Berlanga, who comes into the fight as the No. 5-ranked super middleweight, according to ESPN.

Canelo Alvarez vs. first-time title challenger

YearOpponentLocationResult2024Edgar BerlangaT-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas?2012Josesito LopezMGM Grand, Grand Garden Arena, Las VegasWon by TKO52011Matthew HattonHonda Center, Anaheim, CaliforniaWon by UD

This will be the third time that Alvarez faces off against a first-time world title challenger. Berlanga seeks to become the first fighter to defeat Alvarez in such a fight.

Defeated a unified world champion in first major title fight (Last 30 Years)

YearOpponentChampion at the timeResult2021George Kambosos Jr.Teofimo LopezSD122015Tyson FuryWladimir KlitschkoUD122007David HayeJean-Marc MormeckTKO72007Kelly PavlikJermain TaylorTKO72005Jermain TaylorBernard HopkinsSD122001Hasim RahmanLennox LewisKO5Berlanga: faces unified super middleweight champ Canelo Alvarez in first major title fight on Saturday

Canelo will be making his eighth defense of at least one super middleweight title. He’s currently a -2000 favorite to win (per ESPN BET), which would tie for his second shortest odds to win a super middleweight title fight.

Canelo Alvarez shortest odds in super middleweight title fights

YearOpponentOddsFight result2021Avni Yildirim-6000Third-round TKO2023John Ryder-2000Unanimous decision2018Rocky Fielding-1600Third-round TKO2021Caleb Plant-100011th-round TKO•Alvarez currently a -2000 favorite vs. Berlanga (Per ESPN BET)

In their own words — from Wednesday’s final news conference in Las Vegas

Berlanga on what the fight against Alvarez means to him: “It means everything to be in this position. I’m not supposed to be here. I’ve been doubted since before I turned pro. But I knew that I was bound to end up in this position.

“I could be the face of Puerto Rican boxing after Saturday night. I’ve wanted that for many years and now it’s my turn to do it.”

Berlanga on his approach ahead of the fight: “I’m a knockout artist. Every fighter wants the knockout. We know that he’s a legend and we can’t just go swing for the fences. We have to do it the right way. Sixth-round knockout, that’s what we’re going for. But we’re ready for all 12 rounds if we have to.”

Alvarez on his intention to look for the KO: “It’s easy to say you’ll knock me out, but it’s much more difficult to do it. Saturday night is gonna be very difficult for him, for sure. I’ve prepared for the knockout. I love the feeling of a knockout and I’m gonna do my best to get it done.

“I always put 100 percent into my fights and into training, no matter who I’m fighting. It’s the same mentality every fight. This is no exception. I’ve had a great training camp and I’m ready.”

Alvarez on fighting on Mexican Independence Day weekend: “It’s an honor to fight on this date. Mexican Independence Day is very important for us. It’s very special and I’m very proud to fight for the Mexican people.

“The fans mean everything to me and I appreciate them. They support me no matter what and I’m thankful for everyone who’s supported me throughout my career.”