Why Atlético can beat Barcelona, Real Madrid to LaLiga title this season​​

I can’t believe I’m about to do this, especially two full months before the actual date of Feb. 2, but I’m embarking on my own personal Groundhog Day and arguing, all over again, completely against my better judgement, that Atlético Madrid have a glaring opportunity to become LaLiga champions in May.

Groundhog Day is that curious North American tradition whereby if the world’s most famous marmot, Punxsutawney Phil, emerges from its lair on the second day of February and sees its own shadow then winter is going to stretch on, but if it doesn’t, then we’ll have an early balmy spring.

But the 1993 movie of the same name, starring the mighty Bill Murray, had his arrogant weatherman lead character experiencing the same day over and over again until he learned humility, and found love, so the expression “Groundhog Day” is now equally used to express that feeling of being trapped in a repetitive cycle.

This is precisely where my analytical perspicacity and my deeply cynical pessimism clash head on: regardless of my belief that Atléti manager Diego “Cholo” Simeone possesses so many tics, flaws and unwelcome tinkering instincts that Los Colchoneros will need to triumph despite, rather than because of him, I can’t resist making the case that they might, just might, have their best opportunity since becoming Spanish champions in 2021.

Atléti have the best squad in Spain, arguably in Europe, and that their two principal rivals, Real Madrid and Barcelona are vulnerable, is precisely what I thought at the beginning of this season but backed away from writing because of my Simeone-phobia.

Out of consideration for those who’ve followed my robust views on the 54-year-old who just coached his 701st Atlético match, and who’s won more trophies than any coach in the club’s storied history, I’ll be concise about my criticisms of him.

I think he has relaxed, not to say completely undermined, his personal standards from the hungry “take on the world” coach he once was. I think they specifically dropped after he signed his last contract extension in November 2023. I think that Simeone overly relies on the fact that his constant capability to keep Atléti in the Champions League earns the club big revenue and makes him untouchable. I think that he regularly confuses and under-inspires his players.

I think that his training sessions don’t correct ongoing flaws. I think that he has been consistently bailed out by his director of football, Andrea Berta, signing excellent players who, irrespective of whether their coach is working to the same high standards as in his first 10 years in charge, mean that Atléti will be there or thereabouts.

Don’t take my word for Simeone’s failings — use his own words as evidence. On one of the handful of occasions last season, with his team having played badly and lost (usually away from home), the Argentine said: “It’s the coach’s fault, I’m going to have to work harder and better.” After which little or nothing changed, but the media had their mea culpa and left him alone.

During the summer of 2023 he said: “Halfway through last season parts of the team were off the pace, there was no identity, no clarity, not enough commitment. It felt like we were on the way to the end of an era. I’m not daft, I could see, like you all could, that we were playing badly, that there was insecurity — it was the worst part of my 11 years in charge.”

Then, last season, not only were Simeone’s Atléti the only team, anywhere in Europe, to defeat Madrid, but they did it twice (in LaLiga and the Copa del Rey). Yet, they still managed to win nothing and to finish a dismal 19 points behind Carlo Ancelotti’s Spanish champions. The definition of underachievement.

This term, during an August-October spell when Atléti won only twice in eight matches, while being absolutely humiliated on a 7-1 aggregate by Benfica in Lisbon and Lille in Madrid, I must admit that I thought I’d been wise not to be seduced by the quality of squad-building which Berta achieved last summer.

During those long, embarrassing weeks Simeone’s side often looked devoid of creativity, communication, commitment, consistency and certainly devoid of title options.

After one of the disappointing results, dropping two points at Real Sociedad despite having led for fully 83 minutes, word reached my ear that Simeone had planned a specific set of tactics all week prior to the match, trained his players to those specific orders and then, on the morning of the match, woken up with a bad feeling, no more than a whim, ripped the plans up and changed course for no particular reason, leaving his long-term players shrugging and saying “typical Cholo,” but leaving the confused and annoyed newbies thinking: “What the heck have I signed up for?”

Sadly, this type of behaviour isn’t just a regular week-by-week possibility with this unusual man: he has too often been afflicted by this type of unhelpful compulsion during matches — all to the detriment of his team’s identity, cohesion, unity and reliability.

So, I admit, you’d be within your rights to ask why I too am changing tack and pointing out that while I’m still a confirmed Simeone-cynic, I believe Atléti have earned the right to be talked about as title contenders. Basically, it’s a stubborn fool who, on receipt of new information, refuses to adapt and update his ideas. Therefore: here goes.

The first point is that this is shaping up to be a title chase during which the two leading candidates are vulnerable. Barcelona remain under construction and seem unable to win without Lamine Yamal, plus their captain and goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen won’t play again this season.

Madrid, having lost Toni Kroos to retirement and seen Nacho and Joselu leave, will be without Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão for a year or so, and while their injury list stubbornly refuses to diminish, the conundrum about how to restore Kylian Mbappé’s form remains.

Both sides have played extremely oddly and unimpressively of late — meanwhile Atléti are clicking. They’re a joy to watch again.

Even without the immensely important Robin Le Normand, recruited from Real Sociedad, Simeone’s side have by far the best defensive record in LaLiga. Key striker Alexander Sørloth has six goals and two assists — a goal contribution every 86 minutes. He and Simeone have thrashed out a working relationship from bumpy beginnings.

World Cup-winning Julián Álvarez — signed for huge money from Manchester City and currently being badly missed by England’s champions — is trailing Sørloth in LaLiga but, overall, has 10 goals and two assists. Best of all, he’s performing with the most assurance and self-confidence of his entire career.

Gradually a best XI is emerging, or close to it. There’s two good players for every position (except perhaps if Jan Oblak were to be out long term), Simeone is behaving more consistently, chopping and changing the formation during matches much less often and, bonus ball, there’s the thrilling emergence of his son, Giuliano.

Simeone’s youngest son has all the competitive aggression of his brilliant dad, three times the pace and a scintillating connection with the rabid fans at Atléti’s Metropolitano stadium who crave excitement, verve, thrills and to see someone one the pitch who represents their values. That’s Giuliano alright.

Twenty-two in a couple of weeks, he’s back after seasons on loan at Zaragoza and Alaves, and he’s increasingly a first-choice player — not a hint of nepotism in sight from a guy who’s a transformative influence on the energy, verticality, creativity and fun with which Atléti play.

Before the LaLiga’s midweek fixtures, Los Colchoneros are two points off the top of the table and, in the Champions League, one point off the all-important top eight. Best of all, at least for the moment until the silverware is being doled out in six months’ time, Simeone’s team has suddenly become huge fun to watch again.

Personally, I’m still deeply sceptical about this complex but compelling Argentine coach. Yet there’s a chance, even if it’s a small one, that this can be the season that the Barça-Madrid hegemony can be threatened — or even broken.

Let’s check back in on Feb. 2 and see whether Groundhog Day is going to forecast a sunny, early spring for Atléti … or the same old sinking feeling of a long, dark winter for your beloved columnist because Simeone’s screwed it all up again.