WNBA playoffs betting roundtable: First round betting picks, championship futures​

The 2024 WNBA playoffs tip off Sunday with every postseason team in action. The top-seeded New York Liberty chase their first championship as they host the No. 8 seed Atlanta Dream at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN. At 3 p.m. ET, rookie sensation Caitlin Clark and the No. 6 seed Indiana Fever take on the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun on ABC.

At 5 p.m. ET, the No. 7 seed Phoenix Mercury take on the second-seeded Minnesota Lynx on ESPN, before a 10 p.m. ET nightcap on ESPN when the fourth-seeded Las Vegas Aces begin the hunt for their third-straight championship as they take on the No. 5 seed Seattle Storm.

To get the playoffs started, we’ve asked ESPN WNBA betting analysts Jennifer La Croix, Eric Moody, Liz Loza and Andre Snellings for their best bets for the first round and for the entire playoffs.

Odds are accurate as of time of publication. For latest odds, go to ESPN BET.

What is your best bet for each Round 1 series?

Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun

Total games in series over 2.5 (Even): Indiana will win a game and could possibly steal the series from Connecticut. The Fever were 1-3 against the Sun in the regular season and won the most recent meeting. The Fever went 9-5 after the Olympic break, the fourth-best record in the league trailing only the Lynx (13-2), Liberty (11-4), and Aces (11-5). Indiana’s offense has been on fire since the break averaging a league best in points (90.9), 3-pointers per game (10.9) and 3-point percentage (40%). — LaCroix

Sun 2-1 (+290) over the Fever: Though many will point out the 203-game gap in playoff experience between Indiana and Connecticut, which is the fifth largest in postseason history, I don’t believe this series will be a cakewalk for the Sun. The Fever’s up-tempo style could push the Sun to three games. The Sun have the league’s best defense, but the Fever have improved all season. Expect a competitive series, with Connecticut ultimately coming out on top. — Moody

Fever over Sun (+160): This looks like a toss-up series to me with perhaps a slight edge to the Fever, who are also getting more juice. For both teams, this was a tale of two seasons. Through the first 13 games, the Sun were 12-1 with a plus-10.3-point scoring margin, including three wins by a total of 42 points over a struggling Fever squad (3-10 with a minus-12.2 point -margin). During the past 27 games, though, the Fever actually had a slightly better record (17-10, plus-2.0 scoring margin) than the Sun (16-11, plus-4.7) and also won their most recent head-to-head by four points. The Fever’s strength is their backcourt, led by Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell, who as dual floor leaders have put the Fever in a strong position to compete in the playoffs. — Snellings

Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces

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Total games in a series over 2.5 (Even): The two-time defending champion Aces are likely to take the series, but the Storm won’t make it easy. The teams are evenly matched, each having closed the regular season winning five of six games. Seattle has pushed the pace down the stretch (95.7), earning a higher offensive rating than Vegas (107.1) since the second week of September. The Aces’ defense, however, has outperformed the Storm’s in that span. Given the close seeding, this matchup figures to go distance with the Storm intent on bringing the series home. — Loza

Aces 2-0 (-165) over Storm: I’m taking the Aces to sweep the Storm. Las Vegas has been peaking at the right time going 9-1 in their final 10 games to end the regular season, including 5-1 against teams with records of .500 or better. Seattle is trending in the opposite direction, going 8-7 since the Olympic break and 1-5 against teams with records of .500 or better. — LaCroix

Aces -1.5 (-165) over Storm: After entering the season as favorites to three-peat, the Aces got off to a relatively slow start at 6-6 with a plus-1.1 point scoring differential while star point guard Chelsea Gray was sidelined. During that span, they lost to the Storm by 13 points. Since then, the Aces finished 21-7 with a plus-7.3 point scoring margin, winning all three matchups against the Storm by a total of 29 points. I look for the Aces to continue to ramp up their play as they move through the playoffs. — Snellings

Aces 2-1 (+290) over Storm: The Aces won three of the team’s four meetings when facing the Storm, including the most recent matchup at Climate Pledge Arena on Tuesday. Still, the Storm defeated the Aces early and on the road. This matchup will also be the third time (since 2020) the Aces and Storm have faced off in the playoffs. The teams split their previous meetings (Storm winning in 2020 Finals; Aces winning in 2022 semifinals). The Aces’ overall potency figures to outlast the Storm, but Seattle is a talented squad capable of upsetting the Aces in one game. –– Loza

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx

Editor’s Picks

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Lynx 2-0 (-260) over Mercury: The Lynx hit the ground running this season and never slowed down. With a talented roster led by Napheesa Collier, they rank near the top of the league in both offensive and defensive rating. The Mercury have recently struggled, losing eight of their past 12 games. This downward trend is concerning, especially as they face a dominant team such as the Lynx. — Moody

Lynx -1.5 (-260) over Mercury: The Lynx have been one of the best teams all season, with the second-best record and third-best BPI in the league. The Mercury, on the other hand, have the worst points differential (plus-3.4 vs. plus-6.4 for the Lynx) and worst BPI of any team in the playoffs. The Mercury lost seven of their past 10 games. In the season series, the Mercury won one game by one point in an emotional fourth-quarter comeback during Brittney Griner’s first game back. The Lynx won the other three matchups by a total of 50 points, including a 13-point win in their most recent matchup. — Snellings

Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty

Liberty 2-0 (-400) over Dream: The Liberty should have no trouble sweeping a Dream team that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2018. Although Atlanta managed to defeat New York on the final day of the regular season to clinch the No. 8 seed, they face a tough challenge. The Liberty finished the regular season ranked first in net rating, and the Dream ended up seventh. New York can put up a flurry of points quickly, and that’s exactly what it will do against Atlanta in this series. — Moody

Liberty -1.5 (-400) over Dream: This series should be a sweep. Not only do the Liberty have the best record in the WNBA, they also led the league with a plus-9.2 point scoring differential, giving them a full 12-point advantage in scoring differential over the Dream. The Liberty also led the league in WNBA BPI with a score of 7.0, measuring out with a significantly better offense (Liberty plus-4.1 OBPI; Dream minus-2.3) and defense (Liberty plus-2.9; Dream minus-1.2) than the Dream. — Snellings

Bonus parlay

Lynx 2-0 (-260) over Mercury; Liberty 2-0 (-400) over Dream: I would parlay these two. Since the playoff format changed to a best-of-three playoff series in 2022, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds have not only won every first-round series, they have swept three of the four series. In the regular season, Minnesota went 3-1 against Phoenix (2-0 at home) and New York went 3-0 against Atlanta. — LaCroix

What is your favorite championship winner bet?

Minnesota Lynx (+350): Minnesota is the hottest team entering the playoffs; the Lynx are 13-2 since the Olympic break, the league’s best record in that span. They also went 3-1 against both Las Vegas and New York (including the Commissioner’s Cup) and are one of two teams to rank in the top four in both offensive and defensive efficiency (New York is the other). — LaCroix

New York Liberty (+130): The Liberty fell to the Aces in last season’s Finals, but they’ve dominated the league for most of this season with a 32-8 record. Finishing in the top three in both offensive rating and defensive rating, New York has established itself as the favorite, and it’s no surprise. The sting of last season’s Finals loss has fueled the drive for the Liberty’s first championship. While formidable opponents such as the Aces, Lynx and Sun stand in their way, I believe the Liberty will rise to the challenge. New York will also hold homecourt advantage for as long as the Liberty remain in the postseason. — Moody

Las Vegas Aces (+250): After their relatively slow start, the Aces finished as one of the best teams over the final three-quarters of the season by winning 21 of their final 28 games with a plus-7.3 point scoring margin. A’ja Wilson has put up a season for the ages, and both Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young turned in their typical All-Star levels of play. But the team’s fourth Olympian, Gray, was recovering from injuries for most of the season. She started to find her stride late, with averages of 11.9 points, 5.7 assists and 2.0 steals in 28.6 minutes in her last seven regular-season games. Her return to form completes the Aces’ championship nucleus in time for them to go for a three-peat. — Snellings

What is your favorite Finals MVP bet?

Napheesa Collier (+400): If Minnesota wins the championship, Collier will win Finals MVP. She is leading the Lynx in points (20.4), rebounds (9.7) and steals (1.9). She also has the second-highest average win probability added per game this season (16%) trailing only Las Vegas’ Wilson (19%). — LaCroix

Breanna Stewart (+350): Wilson is the front-runner for regular-season MVP, and deservedly so. She became the first player to score 1,000 points in a season, set the single-season rebounding record and led the league in blocks. But Stewart is more focused on adding another championship and Finals MVP to her résumé, especially after last season’s disappointing WNBA Finals performance. Stewart and the Liberty are seeking redemption and believe they’ll find it this postseason. She previously won the MVP award in 2018 and 2020 with the Storm. — Moody

A’ja Wilson (+275): If the Aces win their third straight WNBA championship, Wilson is by far the front-runner to add another Finals MVP trophy to the regular season MVP she is expected to win. Wilson has a credible argument as both the best offensive and defensive player in the WNBA this season, and for the Aces to make it through the gauntlet of other elite teams to win the title would require Wilson to continue to play at her historic MVP level. — Snellings